With this kind of blended man-machine software, we were able to get from 10-100 times improvement in productivity in reviewing terabytes of electronic emails and documents. The unfortunate impact of being on the second half of the chessboard is a reduction in jobs for those of low and medium skills at evernote a time when as Clifton points out we need.8 billion new good jobs. Where are these jobs to come from. McAfee and Brynjolfsson offer some hope in how we can use Schumpeter s notion of creative destruction once again. With the explosion of apps in Apples, googles and Amazons App Stores, Threadless allowing the custom design of TShirts, kickstarter funding new development, and heartland Robotics providing cheap robots for manufacturing we are seeing many new businesses and lots of new jobs created out. Some of them also create platforms for thousands of other entrepreneurs. None of them may ever create billion-dollar businesses themselves, but collectively they can do more to create jobs and wealth than even the most successful single venture. The nice result of this kind of thinking is that progress in creating jobs is relatively rapid as opposed to relying on the long term effects of education and retraining. The authors go on to describe the problems of the educational system: Unfortunately, our educational progress has stalled and, as discussed in Chapter 3, this is reflected in stagnating wages and fewer jobs.
The overall winner in a recent freestyle tournament had neither the best human players nor the most powerful computers. Kasparov writes, it instead consisted of a pair of amateur American chess players using three computers at the same time. Their skill at manipulating and coaching their computers to look very deeply into positions effectively counteracted the superior chess understanding of their grandmaster opponents and the greater computational power of other participants. weak human machine better process was superior to a strong computer alone and, more remarkably, superior to a strong human machine inferior pdf process. This pattern is true not only in chess but throughout the economy. In medicine, law, finance, retailing, manufacturing, and even scientific discovery, the key to winning the race is not to compete against machines but to compete with machines. The object lesson is then to blend the best of the machine and the human. This is the. Indy cars demonstrate man competing with machine, not against the machine approach that we took with Attenex Patterns using a visual analytics approach to electronic discovery in litigation.
Advances like the google autonomous car, watson the jeopardy! Champion supercomputer, and high-quality instantaneous machine translation, then, can be seen as the first examples of the kinds of digital innovations well see as we move further into the second half—into the phase where exponential growth yields jaw-dropping results. McAfee and Brynjolfsson go on to demonstrate through their research that the current job crisis that we have is the result of being on the second half of the chessboard. Even though the economy has improved, due to the exponential doubling of technological capability we are seeing great leaps in many areas of business. One example is the ability. Ibms Watson to beat world class chess players. However, the authors point out there is a surprising twist: The action moved to freestyle competitions, allowing any combination of people and machines.
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And the inventor could still retain his head. It was as they headed into the second uses half of the chessboard that at least one of them got into trouble. Kurzweils point is that constant doubling, reflecting exponential growth, is deceptive because it is initially unremarkable. Exponential increases initially look a lot like standard linear ones, but theyre not. As time goes by—as we move into the second half of the chessboard—exponential growth confounds our intuition and expectations. It accelerates far past linear growth, yielding everest-sized piles of rice and computers that can accomplish previously impossible tasks.
So where are we in the history of business use of computers? Are we in the second half of the chessboard yet? This is an impossible question to answer precisely, of course, but a reasonable estimate yields an intriguing conclusion. Bureau of Economic Analysis added Information Technology as a category of business investment in 1958, so lets use that as our starting year. And lets take the standard 18 months as the moores Law doubling period. Thirty-two doublings then take us to 2006 and to the second half of the chessboard.
It comes from an ancient story about math made relevant to the present age by the innovator and futurist. In one version of the story, the inventor of the game of chess shows his creation to his countrys ruler. The emperor is so delighted by the game that he allows the inventor to name his own reward. The clever man asks for a quantity of rice to be determined as follows: one grain of rice is placed on the first square of the chessboard, two grains on the second, four on the third, and so on, with each square receiving twice. The emperor agrees, thinking that this reward was too small.
He eventually sees, however, that the constant doubling results in tremendously large numbers. The inventor winds up with 2 to the 64th power grains of rice, or a pile bigger than mount everest. In some versions of the story the emperor is so displeased at being outsmarted that he beheads the inventor. In his 2000 book, the Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence, kurzweil notes that the pile of rice is not that exceptional on the first half of the chessboard: After thirty-two squares, the emperor had given the inventor about 4 billion grains. Thats a reasonable quantity—about one large fields worth—and the emperor did start to take notice. But the emperor could still remain an emperor.
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This is a potentially devastating global shortfall of about.8 billion good jobs. It means that global unemployment for those seeking a formal good job with a paycheck and 30 hours of steady work approaches a staggering 50, with another 10 wanting part-time work. This also means that potential societal homework stress and instability lies within.8 billion — nearly a quarter of the worlds population. Andrew McAfee enterprise.0 ) and, erik brynjolfsson wrote the book, race Against the. Machine : How the digital revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. They recently released an, mit sloan Management review article, winning the race with ever-Smarter Machines which nicely summarizes the key points in their book. The second concept relevant for understanding recent computing advances is closely related good to, moores Law.
as trading a chicken for coal. These jobs do create subsistence and survival, but not real economic energy. They are held by people who are not only miserable but, according to gallup, suffering their way through life with no hope for a formal job — no hope for a good job. Of the 7 billion people on Earth, there are 5 billion adults aged 15 and older. Of these 5 billion, 3 billion tell Gallup they work or want to work. Most of these people need a full-time formal job. The problem is that there are currently only.2 billion full-time, formal jobs in the world.
If countries fail at creating jobs, their societies will fall apart. Countries, and more specifically cities, will experience suffering, instability, chaos, and eventually revolution. This is the new world that report leaders will confront. If you were to ask me, from all the world polling Gallup has done for more than 75 years, what would fix the world — what would suddenly create worldwide peace, global wellbeing, and the next extraordinary advancements in human development, i would say the. Nothing would change the current state of humankind more. A good job is a job with a paycheck from an employer and steady work that averages 30 hours per week. Global labor economists refer to these as formal jobs.
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In this silly season of presidential politics and having to listen to the nightly shenanigans of both parties about how important jobs are with the cynical me knowing that none of them have a clue how to improve the job situation, a couple of insightful. Jim Clifton wrote a thought provoking book. The coming Jobs War. Mr. Clifton is the Chairman and ceo of the. Gallup Organization which is uniquely situated with its polls to understand the key trends throughout the world. In the introduction to his book, clifton writes: The coming world war is an all-out global war for good jobs. As of 2008, the war for good jobs has trumped all other leadership activities because its been the cause and the effect of everything else that countries have experienced. This will become even more real in the future as global competition intensifies.