He is of course quite right to say that the loyalty of Hispanic voters to the democratic Party cannot be guaranteed for decades to come and that projections about their share of the vote in 2050 are in that sense rather meaningless. Nevertheless, he and other conservatives sometimes seem to be resting their hopes on an equally flimsy assumption when they argue that Hispanics are natural social conservatives who, with increasing affluence, will more or less inevitably drift in significant numbers into the republican camp. The assumption of Trende and others that Hispanics are natural social conservatives is not borne out by the polling data. The 2012 exit poll results revealed two-thirds of Hispanic voters saying that abortion should be legal in most or all cases and 60 percent in favour of legalizing same sex marriage. Hispanics were also more likely to believe that homosexuality should be accepted by society and 9 percent more likely to describe themselves as liberal than the American population as a whole. 11, given those social attitudes attitudes, which are not likely to alter significantly with increasing affluence republicans are making a dangerous assumption if they think that a hispanic migration away from the democrats is somehow inevitable. Moreover, if they follow the logic of that assumption and do not adjust their policy positions to accommodate those social attitudes then they will make that migration even less likely as any group that votes heavily for a certain party over a sustained period. In sum, the democrats do currently have an edge amongst the electorate and that edge is likely to continue to grow over the next decade. That edge will not automatically translate into election victories but Democratic victories will be much more likely if the republican Party does not alter its stance on immigration reform and social issues because of a dubious assumption that the demographic trends will ineluctably alter.
Evaluation and Conclusions, trendes arguments serve as a necessary counter to add some of the more hyperbolic statements about a new Democratic majority. His basic point about contingency is unarguable; a demographic advantage amongst voters does not guarantee a party electoral victory since a vast range of unpredictable variables can upset that basic advantage and return the minority party to power. To that extent, the republicans will always remain capable of winning elections. A majority of the American electorate may currently lean toward the democrats, but if President Obama proves unable, for whatever reason, to deliver economic growth and immigration reform and to defend the social welfare programmes upon which many of his supporters continue to depend,. 10, nevertheless, no sane political party rests its electoral hopes on chance, which brings us to Trendes argument about the impact of the choices parties make. On the basis of his own analysis, Trende joins those who argue that the republicans should stick to their guns and not trim to the centre. That analysis, however, is not without its problems.
Which is not to say that there are no good arguments that contradict the emerging Democratic majority thesis. The most cogent of these is that made by sean Trende in his 2012 book, the lost Majority. Trende seeks to refute the notion that there are ever long-lasting majority coalitions of the kind described above. He argues that all electoral coalitions are essentially fissiparous, with factions falling out with each other almost from the moment the coalition is formed. When you add to that the choices parties do or do not make and the simple fact of contingency economic cycles, wars, riots and all the other unforeseen events that can dramatically affect the political fates then, he argues, hardly any group of voters. In relation to the current situation Trende raises a range of objections to the assumption that the democrats now have a lock on the minority, and specifically the hispanic, vote. Above all he objects to the notion that because hispanics overwhelmingly vote democrat now they will do so in future. If they follow the patterns established by earlier European immigrants, he argues, then, given their essentially conservative social values, once they become more affluent so more and more of them will shift their allegiance to the republicans.
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5, with Obama also winning amongst the young and those with a post-graduate education the argument can be simply summed up in goodwill the following terms: The republican demographic base, which is overwhelmingly white, predominantly male and aging, is shrinking, while the democratic base of minorities. The reason why the democrats are doing so well amongst these groups, it is argued, is that the worldview and values of this expanding electorate are far more in tune with those of the democrats than they are with the contemporary republican Party. These groups have broadly liberal social values and majorities of them are supportive of gay marriage and multiculturalism. They are also much more likely than the typical Republican voter to regard it as appropriate for the government to take the central role in dealing with social problems. 6, however, the biggest problem for the republicans in most observers eyes is their restrictionist stance on immigration and the impediment this presents to their making inroads with Hispanic voters. The currently prevailing analysis of the 2012 elections and their implications is therefore that there is an emerging majority of voters in the United States whose values and policy preferences are discordant with the conservatism of the contemporary republican Party and if the latter does. 7, reasons for Republicans to be cheerful?
Naturally that conclusion is not universally accepted, not least amongst Republicans (though there are a significant number who agree with much of it). Nevertheless, many of the objections made so far have something of a whistling in the dark quality to them, as Republicans latch on to any reason other than their ideology and policies to explain away their defeat. Romneys weakness as a candidate, the democrats superior ground game and Hurricane sandy are all regularly wheeled out for this purpose. Also popular is the just wait and see line of argument which insists that the republicans must stick to their guns because their policies are right and eventually people will recognise that fact, if only when the democrats continued expansion of government and the ever-increasing. 8, whilst there is a grain of truth in the first three claims and there may yet be in the final short one, they remain convenient excuses rather than persuasive arguments at this point.
The reason is simple:.com is the where most of Web traffic happens. Com gives you great benefits including better seo, name recognition, and providing your site with a sense of authority. A new Democratic Majority? The emerging conventional wisdom on the republican defeat in the 2012 presidential race is summed up in the observation of Senator Lindsey graham that there are not enough angry white guys for the republicans to stay in business for the long term. 1, grahams remark was made before the election but it was reiterated by the conservative polling organization.
Resurgent Republic in its analysis of the election result: The handwriting is on the wall. Until Republican candidates figure out how to perform better among non-white voters, especially hispanics and Asians, republican presidential contenders will have an extraordinarily difficult time winning presidential elections from this point forward. 2, the logic underpinning these conclusions is based on a statistical analysis of the outcome of the presidential election and the demographic realities which underpinned. If we look at the data we find that Mitt Romney won the white vote by 20 percent (59-39 had a 7 point lead amongst men and a 12 percent lead amongst those over. Obama meanwhile, had overwhelming leads amongst minorities, carrying African Americans by 87 percent, hispanics by 44 percent and Asian-Americans by 47 percent. He also won the female vote 55 to 45 percent and he had a 23 percentage point advantage amongst those aged 18-29 and a 7 point advantage amongst those aged 30-45. The republican problem, the argument goes, is that while thirty years ago that distribution of votes would have given Romney a landslide victory (59 percent is the proportion of the white vote ronald reagan won in 1984) it did not do so in 2012 because. 4, moreover, that trend is set to continue, with the United States predicted to become a majority-minority country by 2050.
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Luckily, i found several draft reports where he defines what he means by most of these terms. No definition stuck out as potentially referring to the same conditions that I had hoped to find. A few pay days ago, i stumbled upon a reflection on idiots and found the term that I would need to follow to answer my research topic. Unfortunately, the other times he mentions idiots in his reports imply that they were not placed in the asylum at this time. While i consider how or if this will demand reorienting my research, i am continuing the process of pouring over the primary sources. This summer and my time in Special Collections have already produced a list of questions with which to direct my secondary research. I can already see the questions falling into categories that will shape up a solid outline and strong thesis.
notes that i am most interested in, are scrawled on scraps of paper tucked into other larger reports or notebooks. Beyond his penmanship, the use of pencil also decreases the legibility of these words more than a century later. Having spent many hours with the documents now, i know better how to interpret the letters that were simply shaped differently at the time (ss, b, p, etc) and appreciate his love for the ampersand. I include the technical challenges because they are often as much a part of research process as the material itself. More recently, i came to another dilemma, this one more difficult to resolve than unfamiliar handwriting. One feature of reading historical texts is unlocking the different usage of language. For example, my research interest was exploring cognitive disability. I approached it from the records of Eastern Lunatic Asylum in hopes that the institution would have served both those with mental illness and, what would now be understood as, intellectual disability. It was difficult to tease out what modern terms were synonymous with his descriptors of moral insanity, general insanity, partial insanity, dementia, etc.
I have thoroughly enjoyed the experience of learning (almost) everything that i know about the topic from movie the sources themselves. Some days I find something that i know will come into the larger thesis somehow and other days I feel like i have spent a whole day reading about building measurements or supply costs. (Things that would motivate historians of a certain sort but not myself.). Galt took detailed notes about the occurrences within the eastern Lunatic Asylum as well as what he had learned from other institutions and authors. He often included long summaries of his scholarship in his annual reports to the legislature. These have been greatly helpful in understanding his knowledge base. I think it is worth sharing the obstacles faced by this breed of research alongside a testament to how much fun I have thumbing through old dusty paper.
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King James Bible, the plan king James Bible (or Authorized Version) has been termed "the noblest monument of English prose." It entered, as no other book has, into the making of the personal character and the public institutions of the English-speaking peoples. As its revisiors state in the preface to the revised Standard Version, "we owe to it an incalculable debt." That debt in part consists of the numerous common phrases that have their origins in the king James translation of the bible. A few of these are listed below. "A law unto themselves" Romans 2:14 "A house divided" Matthew 12:25, luke 11:17 "A man after his own heart" 1 Samuel 13:14 "Apple of my eye" deuteronomy 2:10, zechariah 2:8 "At my wit's end" Psalm 107:27 "Blind leading the blind" Matthew 15:14, luke 6:39 "By. So the time has come to write another blog update about the research process. I have diligently spent the past several weeks in Swems Special Collections, reading my way through each document in their collection. Its a slow process of coming to understand what is there rather than looking to answer predetermined questions.